October 31, 2008

New York, NY - With only a few days remaining until Election Day, today's Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket maintaining its lead over McCain-Palin among likely voters.

In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 48%, McCain-Palin is at 41%, and 6% of likely voters are still undecided.

General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin v Obama-Biden*

Today's Poll shows that 23% of voters have already voted, and among those voters, Obama-Biden leads McCain-Palin by 18 percentage points, (55% - 37%).

Spotlight on Enthusiasm

Today's Poll shows that 61% of likely voters are supporting their candidate enthusiastically, with Democrats reporting higher enthusiasm for their candidate than Republicans by a 21-point margin, (72% for Democrats, 51% for Republicans).

The Poll also shows that black likely voters are more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate than white likely voters by a 21-point margin, (80% of black likely voters say they "will vote enthusiastically" for their candidate, 59% of white likely voters say the same).

Moreover, likely voters in the 18-29 age group report less enthusiasm about their candidate (55% say they will "vote enthusiastically") than likely voters in the 55-64 age group (69% say they will "vote enthusiastically") and likely voters who are over 65 years of age (64% say they will "vote enthusiastically").

Yet looking at the October 16 Poll reveals that the enthusiasm levels of all age groups have increased, except for likely voters between the ages of 30 and 44, (whose enthusiasm levels decreased from 67% in the October 16 Poll, to 59% in today's Poll). Reported enthusiasm levels for those between the ages of 18 and 29 went up 8 points since the October 16 Poll, (from 47% of likely voters saying they would "vote enthusiastically" for their candidate, to 55% of likely voters saying the same today). The largest shift in enthusiasm is reported by likely voters aged 55-64, (whose enthusiasm levels increased from 56% in the October 16 Poll, to 69% in today's Poll).

Table 1: Enthusiasm by Age

Enthusiastically Supporting Candidate	Aged 18-29	Aged 30-44	Aged 45-54	Aged 55-64	Aged 65+
October 16 Poll	47%	67%	53%	56%	54%
October 31 Poll	55%	59%	55%	69%	64%

Oct 16 (N=736 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.6%)
Oct 31 (N=775 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.5%)

Regional Breakdown

The Poll also shows that Obama-Biden is leading McCain-Palin in most regions of the United States in the head-to-head ballot, including the highly contested region of the Midwest, (51% for Obama-Biden, 38% for McCain-Palin). McCain-Palin is leading Obama-Biden by 4 points in the South, (46% - 42%), and Obama-Biden is ahead of McCain-Palin by 20 points in the Northeast (53% - 33%), and by 8 points in the West (51% - 43%).

Table 2: Head-to-Head Ballot by Region

Candidates	West	South	Midwest	Northeast
McCain-Palin	43%	46%	38%	33%
Obama-Biden	51%	42%	51%	53%

N=870 likely voters, MoE=+/-3.3%

Issues/Preparedness

In terms of expected performance on the economy, the Poll shows Obama maintaining his lead over McCain, (48% - 37%).

Who would do Best Job Handling the Economy?*

Today's Poll shows that McCain has re-gained ground in terms of perceived preparedness to lead since the beginning of the week, (46% - 42%). The two candidates were at parity on this measure in both the October 27 and 28 Polls.

Preparedness to Lead*

 

* data presented in charts based on rolling 3-day average of 800+ likely voter interviews (out of 900+ registered voter interviews) concluded the previous day. This is based on at least 300 interviews conducted daily.

 

To schedule an interview with Ed Reilly, contact Smriti Sateesh at (212) 850-5749 or Smriti.Sateesh@fd.com.

Methodology: From September 2 - September 30, 2008 the Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll has been conducted via telephone among a random, nationally representative sample of registered voters, age 18 and older. As we move closer to the general election, we have focused our sample on those considered to be most likely to vote. Therefore our release of daily tracking results will now be lead by our likely voter results. Results are released daily. As of the October 25 Poll, in light of the increasing proportion of the population that has reported to be early or absentee voters, FD has decided to include those defined as "voters who have indicated they are extremely likely to vote, very likely to vote or have already voted absentee or early" in the likely voter sample. Today's results are based on combined data from Oct 28 to Oct 30, 2008, with n=870 likely voters (margin of error +/- 3.3%) and n=902 registered voters (margin of error +/- 3.3%).

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